Daily Update

September 30th Update

I really do hate to say it, but there is more rain on the way, potentially to historic levels this weekend. Several competing weather systems (one of which is of the hurricane variety) will result in more wet conditions for our area. If you are seeing sunshine this morning, savor every moment as it doesn’t look to last very long. We can also expect to see a cool-down over the next few days to go along with that rain. Please be sure to stay on top of the weather scenario over the next several days. There is still some uncertainty with the forecast, but if Hurricane Joaquin takes the track that several prediction models currently have it taking, major flooding will be possible this weekend for a good deal of the state. I’ll do my best to keep the blog updated, but be sure to stay tuned to local media and with the National Weather Service to stay on top of the situation.

A cold front is poised to begin passing through our region today. This front will increase our cloud coverage and bring yet another chance for some rain to the region as we progress through the day. Due to the warmer conditions we have seen over the past few days, some thunderstorms are even possible this afternoon and evening (especially for locations along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains). These will be isolated in nature, but heavy rains and gusty winds can be expected with any storm that does develop overhead. Highs today will moderate slightly, topping out in the lower 70s to low 80s east of the mountains. Clouds and rain showers will stick around this evening, as low temperatures drop down into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the state.

Unfortunately, the atmosphere doesn’t look to give us any breaks tomorrow and Friday as far as rain is concerned. Wet conditions look to be locked in for us over the next couple of days. What is known as a blocking ridge is currently taking residence in the Atlantic and this will keep the rain-producers from exiting the area. This phenomenon will also play a big part in determining Hurricane Joaquin’s impacts on our region over the weekend (more on that below). Regardless of the tropical system, our region is in for a good amount of rain over the next 48 hours. Showers are possible throughout the day tomorrow, so don’t pack away that rain gear just yet. Highs for your Thursday will be quite a bit cooler behind the front as well, hovering in the lower to mid 60s. Rain showers will actually increase in coverage and intensity as we progress into the evening and overnight hours tomorrow evening. Cloud coverage will remain thick and lows will bottom out in the lower to upper 50s.

We are in for a good bit of additional rain before any potential impacts of TS Joaquin this weekend. (NOAA, WPC, NWS)
As you can see, we are in for a good bit of additional rain before any potential impacts of Hurricane Joaquin this weekend. (NOAA, WPC, NWS)

Friday will round out the work week with much of the same. In fact, Friday currently looks to be wetter than today and tomorrow. Also plan to see high temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s and cloudy skies overhead once more. No changes to the weather story Friday evening, with clouds and rain showers continuing to dominate the area. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the low to mid 50s across the state.

As if that weren’t enough, Hurricane Joaquin could deliver even more rain to the region over the coming weekend. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact path that the storm could take, but most models have the storm taking a turn inland along the VA and NC borders sometime Sunday. If this scenario pans out, historic flooding could be possible for our region. The European model is one of the very few that has the storm moving away from the coast of the United States and off to sea. This could very well be a possibility and hopefully the situation will become clearer as we progress through the next 48 hours. Here are a few screenshots from a couple of different models:

This is the GFS' solution for Sunday evening around 8PM. This is obviously the worst case scenario, but most models are currently going with this solution. (Tropical Tidbits)
This is the GFS solution for Sunday evening around 8PM. This is obviously the worst case scenario, but most models are currently going with this solution. (Tropical Tidbits)
This is a different product from the GFS above, but it is for the same time period (8PM Sunday). As you can see, TS Joaquin is well off the coast of the US, with little to no impacts other than a possible increased storm surge along the coast. (Tropical Tidbits)
This is a different product from the GFS above, but it is for the same time period (8PM Sunday). As you can see, Hurricane Joaquin is well off the coast of the US, with little to no impacts other than a possible increased storm surge along the coast. (Tropical Tidbits)
This is accumulated rainfall for Sunday 8PM from the GFS model. This is the worst case scenario, where we could see another 5+ inches of additional rainfall. (Tropical Tidbits)
This is accumulated rainfall for Sunday 8PM from the GFS model. Again, this is the worst case scenario, where we could see another 5+ inches of additional rainfall. (Tropical Tidbits)
Here is the National Hurricane Center's current thoughts on the track of Hurricane Joaquin. (NOAA, NHC, NWS)
Here is the National Hurricane Center’s current thoughts on the track of Hurricane Joaquin. (NOAA, NHC, NWS)

As you can see there is still a great deal of uncertainty with what exactly will go down. Everything will depend on the track the storm decides to take. If I had to guess, a solution somewhere between the GFS and the European models will be the most likely scenario. I believe the storm will take a turn inland at some point and heavy rains can be expected wherever it decides to do so. Nevertheless, we should be prepared for the worst. If current scenarios within the models play out, historic flooding could be on the way for our region. I can’t stress enough how important it is to stay very aware of the weather over the next few days as the situation becomes clearer. If you or someone you know lives in an area prone to flooding, please be sure to check in on them and make sure that they have a safe place to stay. Also, don’t ever attempt to drive across a flooded roadway, as it takes very little water to wash away most vehicles. I know this was a very long post today, but I wanted to do my best to give you my thoughts on the situation. I will do my best to keep the blog and my Twitter updated with the latest information as it becomes available over the next 48 hours. Thanks as always for tuning in and please stay safe out there.

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Daily Update

September 28th Update

If you are not a fan of the weather conditions we have seen over the past several days, I have some bad news for you. Rain and clouds look to stick around for the majority of this week due to several competing weather systems impacting our region over the next few days. Our area definitely could have used some rain, but not to this degree. Flash flooding issues will almost certainly arise as the week progresses as a result of the continued rainfall. Please be sure to stay weather-wise this week if you live in locations prone to flooding. Rain should finally begin to gradually taper off by the end of the week, with a potential cool-down on the way as well.

The remnants of the coastal low pressure system that has delivered rain to our area over the past several days will continue to do so today. That system will combine with another tropical low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico and an approaching cold front from the west/northwest to bring even more rain to the state over the next few days. Three systems, two of which contain abundant amounts of tropical moisture, will lead to an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall for our region over the next 72 hours (with some locations along the Blue Ridge pushing the 3 inch marker). Southwestern winds will also keep our temperatures above normal for this time of year today and tomorrow. These warmer temperatures combined with abundant moisture in the atmosphere will provide the necessary ingredients for some thunderstorm development tomorrow to go along with the rain. These storms will mostly be confined to areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains where the warmest temperatures will be present. Any storms that do develop will bring downpours and strong winds along with them. There is a lot going on weather-wise this week, so please be sure to stay on top of the situation by tuning in to local media and the National Weather Service over the coming days.

Weather Prediction Center's frontal position chart for tomorrow morning. Lots of things going on in the atmosphere over our heads and lots of rain on the way. (NOAA, WPC, NWS)
Weather Prediction Center’s frontal position chart for tomorrow morning. Lots of things going on in the atmosphere over our heads and lots of rain on the way. (NOAA, WPC, NWS)

High temperatures today will top out around the mid 70s to lower 80s underneath cloudy skies. We can expect only isolated to scattered rain showers today, with the bulk of the precipitation arriving tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures across the area this evening will dip down into the lower to upper 60s, as showers and cloudy skies continue to be a part of the forecast.

Another dreary, wet day can be expected tomorrow with more rain on the way. Highs will reach into the mid 70s to lower 80s once again by the end of the day. Most of the rain we will see over the next few days looks as if it will arrive tomorrow afternoon and evening, so please keep in that mind for your daily plans and be sure to dress accordingly. Look for lows to once again be in the lower to upper 60s tomorrow evening.

Rain showers continue on Wednesday, although not quite to the level that we will see tomorrow. Temperatures by the end of the day will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s in the east. Clouds, rain showers, and lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s will all be a part of the weather story Wednesday evening.

Temperatures across the state Friday morning. (NOAA, NWS)
Temperatures across the state Friday morning. (NOAA, NWS)

Showers will stick around across the region heading into the end of the work week (although not nearly as extreme as what we will see tomorrow and Wednesday), as some colder air begins to work its way into the region. Highs Thursday and Friday will only reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s, a big difference from the 70 and 80 degree numbers we will see today. Try to stay dry out there and be aware of the flash flooding threat over the next few days. Stay tuned to local media and the National Weather Service to stay on top of things, and expect another update here on Wednesday. Thanks for tuning in as always!

Weekend Update

Sept. 18th – Sept. 20th Update

An area of high pressure will continue to dominate our weather locally today, but a few changes are on the way. We can expect another fairly pleasant and sunny day to kick off the weekend today and tomorrow before a cold front begins to impact the region late Saturday evening and into the day Sunday. The possibility for rain will definitely be present towards the back-end of your weekend and heading into the first part of next week (especially for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains), but the front looks to be a weak one, meaning a wash out isn’t likely. A wedge pattern looks to set in after the fronts passage Sunday evening resulting in cloudy conditions and cooler temperatures to begin the work week.

It will certainly feel like a late-summer day across the region this afternoon, as high temperatures make their way into the upper 70s to mid 80s over the span of the next several hours. Controlling high pressure will continue to deliver abundant sunshine overhead, so all things considered it should be a nice day to get outdoors. Clear conditions tonight will allow for lows to dip down into the lower 50s to mid 60s the further east you travel. Some patchy fog development is also possible early tomorrow morning, especially for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge, so please keep that in mind for any plans you may have tomorrow morning.

Saturday will kick off the weekend with another relatively pleasant day across the state. Sunshine will be present for a good portion of the day and highs will push into the upper 70s to mid 80s once again. Cloud coverage will begin to increase for areas in the west late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening due to the approaching cold front. Everyone else can plan for mostly to partly clear skies tomorrow night, with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the state.

The cold front will spell out a return for some precipitation on Sunday, again with areas along and west of the Blue Ridge being in the location of largest impact. That being said, the front that will deliver that precipitation doesn’t currently look to be a very strong one and doesn’t have a lot of moisture to play with. Scattered showers are possible across the state as we progress through the day, but certainly don’t plan for a wash-out. High temperatures will be slightly cooler underneath increasing cloud coverage, topping out in the mid 70s to lower 80s by days end. Lows Sunday evening will drop down into the mid 50s to lower 60s, with cloudy skies and scattered rain showers and drizzle continuing to be a part of the weather story.

That area of high pressure over the New England state Monday morning will lead to some rain/drizzle and cloudy skies for our area. On the bright side, it will help to drive our temperatures back down to around normal for mid-September. (Simuawips)
That area of high pressure over the New England states Monday morning will lead to some rain/drizzle and cloudy skies for our area. On the bright side, it will help to drive our temperatures back down to around normal for mid-September. (Simuawips)

A classic wedge pattern looks to set up behind the front’s passage late Sunday evening and into the early portions of our Monday. This means that cloudy skies are a safe bet to begin the work week, along with a continued chance for some rain showers and drizzle. If you can deal with the somewhat dreary conditions that are typical of wedge patterns, temperatures will cool back off to around normal for this time of year. As always, stay tuned here for the latest information and thanks for tuning in!

Daily Update

September 16th Update

Pleasant conditions are expected to continue across the region through at least the first portion of the upcoming weekend. As winds begin to shift more out of the south/southeast, temperatures and humidity values will gradually rise through Saturday, almost to summer-like levels. A cold front will begin to impact the region on Sunday, but that front will only bring a few showers to the region and drop our temperatures back down to the levels we have seen over the past several days. All in all, great outdoors weather will continue across the region for the foreseeable future.

High pressure is still firmly in control of our region, meaning pleasant conditions will continue. Temperatures today will make their way into the upper 70s to mid 80s by the end of the day. Abundant sunshine will also continue to be a dominating part of the forecast, so definitely try to get outdoors if you can today to take advantage. Clear skies this evening will allow for lows to drop down into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Some patchy fog development is also possible for areas primarily west of the Blue Ridge tomorrow morning, so please keep that in mind for your morning commute tomorrow.

Current satellite imagery. Just some fair weather clouds overhead for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast due to that controlling dome of high pressure. In other words, a great day to be outdoors! (Simuawips)
Current satellite imagery. Just some fair weather clouds overhead for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast due to that controlling dome of high pressure. In other words, a great day to be outdoors! (Simuawips)

Thursday will bring more of the same, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and sunny skies again being the major weather stories for the region. Humidity values will continue to creep ever so slightly upwards making it a little more sticky outside, but nothing that should detract from the pleasant conditions. We can expect another clear sky tomorrow evening, but temperatures won’t be quite as cool as what we have seen the past several nights. Low temperatures across the state tomorrow evening will range from the low 50s to lower 60s the further east you travel. Patchy fog will again be possible in the areas I mentioned above, so again please allow plenty of time to reach your destination Friday morning if you are headed out and about.

We will round out the work week Friday with another warm, sunny, and slightly more humid day across the state. Highs will reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s throughout the region, with mostly sunny skies again to be expected. Plan to see another relatively clear night Friday evening, as lows bottom out in the mid 50s to lower 60s once again.

Saturday looks to continue the trend set in place over the latter part of this week, at least through the daytime hours. The cold front I mentioned above will begin to impact the area by increasing cloud coverage overhead late Saturday evening before moving in completely Sunday morning. It doesn’t look as if the front will have a lot of moisture to work with when it arrives, meaning that precipitation chances will be pretty low. Nevertheless, a few showers can’t be ruled out during the day Sunday, especially for the mountainous areas of the state. High pressure will again move in behind the front’s passage, driving temperatures back down heading into the first parts of next week. As always, stay tuned here for the latest information as it becomes available and thanks for tuning in!

Daily Update

September 14th Update

If you had to be up early to head to work this morning, you got a first-hand experience of the chilliest night we have seen in several months. High pressure is firmly in control of our region, and it looks as if it will stay in control through at least Thursday of this week. This basically means that we can expect some beautiful weather over the next several days. As we progress through the work week, we can expect temperatures and humidity levels to gradually creep back upwards to around summer-like levels by the end of the week. Precipitation chances this week look to be almost non-existent, with the next significant possibility for some rain arriving this weekend.

As mentioned above, an area of high pressure is firmly wedged over our region at the moment. This system will lead to abundant sunshine for a good majority of the state today, as high temperatures make their way into the lower to upper 70s by the end of the day. It will be an absolutely fantastic day to get outdoors, so definitely try to take advantage if you can! We can look forward to another clear, calm and cold evening across the state tonight. Lows will drop down into the mid 40s to lower 50s, making for another chilly start to the day tomorrow. Some patchy fog development is also possible in the valley areas of the Blue Ridge, so please keep that in mind for your morning commute tomorrow.

HRRR temperature output for this afternoon. It's a little hard to see in this picture, but this model output shows the controlling high pressure system over Cape Hatteras around 5PM this evening. That high will move around a bit over the next few days, but will dominate our weather in the form of sunny skies and pleasant temperatures. (Simuawips)
HRRR temperature output for this evening. It’s a little hard to see in this picture, but this model output shows the controlling high pressure system over Cape Hatteras around 5PM this evening. That high will move around a bit over the next few days, but will dominate our weather in the form of sunny skies and pleasant temperatures. (Simuawips)

Temperatures will gradually creep northward tomorrow, topping out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Otherwise, we can expect more of the same for our Tuesday; plenty of sunshine to go around for everyone and just another generally great day to be outdoors. Another clear evening Tuesday night will allow for temperatures to bottom out in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the state. Patchy fog development in the areas mentioned above will again be a part of the weather story late Tuesday night and into the morning hours of our Wednesday.

Wednesday will continue the work week with another sunny, pleasant day. Temperatures and humidity values will continue to climb upwards, with highs poised to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s by the end of the day. Yet another clear sky is expected Wednesday evening, as low temperatures drop down into the upper 40s to mid 50s once again.

As I mentioned above, our next chance for some rain doesn’t arrive until at least Saturday with the passage of a cold front. That possibility is even a little uncertain at the moment, as models aren’t in agreement of the front’s exact arrival in our region. If the front is delayed, rain likely won’t be a possibility until early next week and we will experience summer-like warmth and humidity this weekend. If the front arrives on Saturday, we will see some rain and temperatures will again drop back down to around normal for this time of year. As always, check back here for the latest information. The situation should become clearer as we move closer to the weekend. Thanks for tuning in as always!

Weekend Update

September 11th – September 13th Update

If you have been anxiously awaiting fall-like conditions, I have some good news for you. Cool, dry air is on its way to the region and could stick around through at least the beginning portions of next week. The bad news, however, is that we will have to get through some rain showers tomorrow and through the morning hours of our Sunday in order to see those cool conditions. Next week currently looks to be very pleasant across the region, with little to no precipitation expected.

NAM temperature output for today through Monday evening showing an intrusion of cold air into our region (sorry for the small picture!). (Simuawips)
NAM temperature output for today through Monday evening showing an intrusion of cold air into our region. (Simuawips)

While some cooler weather is certainly on the way, today will trend to the warmer conditions we have seen over the past several days. Highs today will top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s by the end of the day underneath partly to mostly sunny skies. There is also a very slight chance for a stray thunderstorm or two today, especially through southside Virginia. Gusty winds, heavy rains and an occasional instance of some hail are possible today with any storm that does develop in that area, but again, these should be very isolated in nature and short-lived. Just keep an eye on the radar to be on the safe side, as otherwise it should be a very nice day to get outdoors. A cold front will begin moving into our region from the west this afternoon and evening. This front will begin to deliver some rain showers to the area this evening, with colder air moving in behind it later this weekend. Look for low temperatures to drop down into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the region tonight, as cloud coverage increases overhead.

Saturday will be the wetter of the two days this weekend, as showers and a few very isolated thunderstorms are likely. Rain jackets, ponchos and umbrellas currently look to be a must if you are heading out and about tomorrow for any local college football games. Temperatures will continue to trend downwards, reaching into the lower 70s to low 80s by the end of the day. Some of the highest elevations in the region may not even make it out of the 60s. Showers stick around heading into the evening and overnight hours Saturday, with lows dipping into the lower 50s to low 60s underneath mostly cloudy skies also to be expected.

An area of high pressure will firmly establish itself over our area beginning Sunday. Rain showers will gradually taper off as we progress through the morning portions of our Sunday, with sunshine expected to return to the area by the afternoon. Highs will only reach into the mid 60s to mid 70s for locations along the coast. Dry conditions combined with cooler air will make for a great afternoon to enjoy the great outdoors. Clear skies Sunday evening will allow for one of our coldest nights in a long time. Lows will bottom out in the mid 40s to mid 50s the further east you go. A fall-like chill will most definitely be in the air come Monday morning.

Projected temperatures across the state Monday morning. (NOAA, NWS)
Projected temperatures across the state around 8 AM Monday morning. (NOAA, NWS)

This trend will continue into the foreseeable future, with the next chance of some rain not expected until at least Friday of next week. Cool nights and warm afternoons will make for some great outdoors weather over the next several days, so be sure to get out and enjoy the nice conditions while they last. Thanks for tuning in as always!

Daily Update

September 9th Update

Here’s to hoping that you took advantage of the generally pleasant conditions we have seen over the past several days, as some changes are headed to our region beginning today. An upper-level disturbance currently over our heads and a fast-approaching cold front will bring a good chance for some widespread rain to the area today and tomorrow heading into the upcoming weekend. Precipitation today will be driven by the upper-level disturbance, with the front beginning to impact us late this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin this afternoon and continue into the evening hours tonight. The severe threat is relatively low, but the possibility for a few strong storms can’t be ruled out. Gusty winds and heavy rains can be expected for any storm that does develop overhead. It will be a good idea to keep a watchful eye on the radar this afternoon just to be on the safe side. Clouds will continue to increase across the region today as these two systems begin working together. High temperatures will remain above average for this time of year for at least one more day, moving into the low 80s to lower 90s east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Precipitation will continue this evening, as lows hover in the mid 60s to lower 70s underneath cloudy skies.

HRRR output for this evening around 5PM. The image shows precipitation development from an upper-level disturbance and the approaching front. (Simuawips)
HRRR output for this evening around 5PM. The image shows precipitation development from an upper-level disturbance and the approaching front. (Simuawips)

The cold front will begin to dominate our weather this evening and into the day Thursday. Widespread rain showers are a very likely bet through a good portion of the day tomorrow, so be sure to keep that umbrella or rain jacket nearby for your daily commute. The threat for thunderstorms is lower tomorrow from what we will see today, but a few could develop in areas east of the Blue Ridge where better dynamics are expected to be present. Temperatures tomorrow will cool off ever so slightly, with highs topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Rain should begin to gradually taper off tomorrow evening moving into the early morning hours of our Friday. Cloud coverage will remain thick, however, as low temperatures drop down into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

We can’t rule out a few stray showers during the day on Friday, but nothing to the widespread coverage we will see tomorrow. Sunshine will also begin to break through cloud coverage overhead, as highs move into the mid 70s to lower 80s by the end of the day. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions, lows dipping into the upper 50s to mid 60s, and another slight chance for a stray rain shower or two will be the story for the region Friday evening.

Another cold front will begin to impact the region on Saturday, meaning we can expect to see more clouds and rain overhead. Skies gradually clear out through the day Sunday, but it won’t be until the first portions of next week until precipitation fully exits the region. As always, check back here on Friday for the latest details to prepare for your upcoming weekend.